Far-fetched optimism: the euro has nothing to cover

The day before the publication of PMI figures from Europe was strongly greeted, even before the statistics were released, there was optimism. The mass media are presenting information about an era of explosive growth in a delicious, sweet sauce. But what if we discard all the "tinsel" and soberly assess the current situation. Nothing supernatural is happening, the indicators came out close to the forecast, which means they were already included in the price. By the way, it is worth remembering how such figures were compiled. Yes, it's all about incentives. This toolkit, as we can see, is nearing completion, at least new ones are not expected yet.
Thus, the risks for buyers are becoming more and more real.

Far-fetched optimism: the euro has nothing to cover

And now today's bomb has arrived. The day began unexpectedly negatively, the German statistics let us down. Retail sales in Germany fell 5.5% month-on-month, breaking the 7.7% rise in March. Markets, meanwhile, did not anticipate that the indicator could decline by more than 2%. This was the ceiling for the decline in forecasts.
On an annualized basis, retail sales growth slowed to 4.4% from 11.6% in March. At the same time, the indicator was expected to grow by 10.1%.
To say that the situation is negative is to say nothing. Yes, there are reasons for a sharp decline in sales, but the figure fell, taking into account all the incentives thrown in. It means something. At the very least, we are now seeing a slowdown in the growth momentum.
As a result, the EUR / USD pair failed to gain a foothold above 1.2230 and continue the upward trend. The key mark is now 1.2175, which, apparently, will also remain in the piggy bank of bears' victories today.
FX24

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