Saudi Arabia’s $500 Billion Gamble: Will The Line Become a Straight Loss?

Saudi Arabia’s $500 Billion Gamble: Will The Line Become a Straight Loss

A Futuristic Vision Under Review

Saudi Arabia is putting its most ambitious megaproject — The Line, a proposed $500 billion linear city — under strategic review.
This massive urban experiment, stretching 105 miles through the desert of Neom, is a key pillar of the kingdom’s Vision 2030, aimed at reducing reliance on oil and revolutionizing urban living.

Recently, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) requested top consulting firms to reassess the feasibility, cost, and overall viability of the project.

While Neom’s developers emphasize that such strategic evaluations are a routine part of long-term development, the timing reveals deeper concerns.

Neom, Saudi Arabia — the $500 billion linear city project.

What’s Driving the Reevaluation?

Global scrutiny and growing pressure on Saudi Arabia’s public finances are the immediate catalysts. A combination of declining oil revenues, a growing budget deficit, and the sheer cost of visionary projects like The Line — has prompted decision-makers to hit pause and reassess.

As of now, construction is visibly underway. Massive cranes, pile drivers, and the foundation of a high-speed transit spine stretch across the desert sands. Between two planned 500-meter-high glass skyscrapers, the city aims to eventually house 9 million residents.

But experts are asking: Is the technology mature enough? Is the vision realistic at this scale?

“You’re not looking at the same economics when oil trades at $70 a barrel instead of $100,” — notes Tim Callen, Gulf expert at the Gulf States Institute.

Neom's Massive Ambition and the Reality Check

The Line is just one component of Neom’s $1.5 trillion blueprint — a project personally championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The overarching goal is to transform the northwestern region of the country into a magnet for talent, innovation, and new industries.

However, 2024 marked a fiscal shift. Once free-flowing megaproject budgets are now constrained by oil-dependent revenue and a more cautious investment climate. That’s pushing officials to reassess priorities and potentially scale down certain elements of the plan.

Moreover, insiders raise concerns about the so-called "Yes-man culture" — where overly optimistic projections are presented to appease leadership, rather than reflect practical, market-grounded insights.

Will The Line Ever Be Completed?

It’s unlikely the project will be scrapped entirely. Instead, industry observers expect a scaled-down version of The Line with extended timelines and revised scope.

If Neom wants to maintain global credibility, the project must pivot from being an architectural fantasy to a credible urban innovation model.

“For a megaproject to succeed at this scale, it must reflect market reality and inspire trust,” one strategist noted.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 remains bold, but even visionary plans must bend to fiscal gravity. The Line’s future now depends on realistic execution, technological feasibility, and international investor confidence.

With eyes around the world watching, Neom’s evolution could define the next era of megaproject development — or serve as a cautionary tale.


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By Claire Whitmore
July 21, 2025
FX24

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